Let the party begin!
It’s here! Waste Management commonly dubbed the People’s Open at TPC Scottsdale. Waste Management is famous for being the PGA Tour’s party stop for fans, a week where you get to be extra rowdy and indulge in numerous alcoholic beverages. It’s simply a non-stop party all week, that’s headline by the famous par 3 16th hole. Some of the most electric golf clips + moments every year come from this hole, especially if there’s a hole in 1. If you were to make a bingo card for this week the spots guaranteed to hit are the viral videos of people who couldn’t quite handle their booze and are passed out somewhere on the ground, the annual confrontation of a player calling out a fan to shutup (You all remember Zach Johnson in 2024.), the golf traditionalists complaining there’s no place in the game for a tournament like this and the online behaviour police complaining that people are enjoying themselves too much. Anyways I can’t wait, getting a tournament like this every once in a while is needed!
The Course
We are finally back to just one course in the rotation this week! Another reason to let loose and celebrate!! Tournaments with multiple course rotation setups have to be one of my biggest pet peeves when it comes to following Professional Golf.
Quick Course Details:
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Par: 71 (4 – par threes, 3 – par fives, 11 – par four’s)
Yardage: 7275
Greens: Bermuda
Typical Field Average Score to Par: Par 5’s: -0.36 (under-par), Par 4’s: +0.05 (Over-par), Par 3’s: +0.05 (Over-par)
I wouldn’t quite label TPC Scottsdale a true birdie fest, but there are plenty of scoring holes and opportunities throughout the week. Players will need to make their fair share of birdies if they want to contend come Sunday.
Hitting fairways is important, but missing them isn’t a recipe for disaster. The rough is generally not overly penal, and in most cases players will still find a lie that allows them to advance the ball toward the green. The bigger danger off the tee comes from the local vegetation and desert-like surroundings on certain holes, where wayward drives can lead to unpredictable and unfortunate situations. Fairways should be firm, allowing drives to run out, and water comes into play on roughly one-third of the holes.
All three par 5s are reachable and highly scorable, making par-5 scoring a key focus this week. The par-4 17th is also drivable, setting the stage for exciting drama late in the round. The winner here usually has a hot putter during the week. So pair a hot putter with a decent wedge player and a solid ball striker from 125-175 yards and that should be your recipe for success.
The closing four-hole stretch is one of the most exciting on the PGA Tour. It features the reachable par-5 15th, the stadium-style chaos of the par-3 16th, the drivable par-4 17th with water in play, and a birdie-able par-4 18th. It really sets up well for some potential fireworks coming down the stretch to also feed into and match the crowds energy.
Notable Player’s in the Field
Scottie Scheffler: World #1 by a mile and massive tournament favourite Scheffler makes his first start since winning the American Express in dominant fashion. The American Express was Scheffler’s 20th Tour win and this amazing run started all the way back here at the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open where he won for the first time. He went on to defend his title here too in 2023. No one would be shocked to see him pick up win #21 already this week.
Viktor Hovland: Hovland makes his return to the Waste Management after not playing since 2023. This will be his fourth start at the WMPO; a tournament that he hasn’t faired too well at before with 2 missed cuts and a T42, but maybe that changes this year. It’ll be Hovland’s first start of the PGA Tour this season. Excited to see him back in action!
Collin Morikawa: Morikawa makes his second start of the season after missing the cut at the season opener event the Sony Open. Morikawa like Hovland will be making his first start here since 2023 where he missed the cut. Will be key to see if he’s solved any of his putting issues in the last two weeks.
Some other big names: Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Ben Griffin, Cam Young, Brooks Koepka, Si Woo Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick and some others
For a non-signature event we have a very strong field this week and also notable last year’s defending champion “Thomas Detry” will not be in the field due to him signing with LIV Golf in the offseason.
Tournament History / Past Results
Past Winners + score to par + winning margin:
Last 5 years:
2025: Thomas Detry, -24 (Margin: 7 shots)
2024: Nick Taylor, -21 (Margin: Playoff)
2023: Scottie Scheffler, -19 (Margin: 2 shots)
2022: Scottie Scheffler, -16 (Margin: Playoff)
2021: Brooks Koepka, -19 (Margin: 1 shot)
Other Past Winners in the field: Webb Simpson (2020), Rickie Fowler (2019), Gary Woodland (2018), Hideki Matsuyama (2017, 2016)
Players with a recent good track record here (Yet to win):
Jordan Spieth –> T4 (2025), T6 (2024), T6 (2023), T60 (2022), T4 (2021). Is he due?
Maverick Mcnealy –> T9 (2025), T6 (2024)
Cam Young –> T12 (2025), T8 (2024), 64 (2023), T26 (2022)
Sahith Theegala –> T57 (2025), 5 (2024), T39 (2023), T3 (2022)
Xander Schauffele –> T10 (2023), T3 (2022), T2 (2021)
Sam Burns –> T49 (2025), T3 (2024), T6 (2023), MC (2022), T22 (2021)
Over the past decade, this tournament has frequently come down to the wire along its exciting closing stretch. Last year was the clear exception, as Detry spoiled the drama by cruising to a seven-shot victory. Since 2015, however, we’ve seen six playoffs, with eight of the last 11 editions decided by a single stroke or less. Detry’s win was the first margin greater than two shots since Phil Mickelson’s victory in 2014, and prior to that, J.B. Holmes’ seven-shot win back in 2006. History suggests that last year was more of an anomaly, and we should expect another tight finish down the stretch.
The average winning score since 2015 sits at around 18-under par, but with ideal weather and excellent scoring conditions expected this week (similar to what we saw at Torrey Pines last week) I wouldn’t be surprised if the winning score pushes closer to Detry’s territory from last year, around 24-under par.
Finger’s crossed Scottie has a bad week with the putter and keeps things exciting and close… but I fear he could absolutely run away with it.
Stay tuned for my betting card out later today!
