Betting Card - PLAYERS Championship

My Card

Players Championship – 2026

*All odds via bet365*

Big tournament this week so I wanted to have some fun with some more dart throws at the board. So that means bit bigger card than usual.

Outrights:

– Collin Morikawa – Outright Win +2500 (0.8U)

– Ludvig Aberg – Outright Win +2400 (0.8U)

– Sepp Straka – Outright Win E/W 5 plcs +4000 (0.8U)

– Min Woo Lee – Outright Wn E/W 5 plcs +6000 (0.8U)

– Daniel Berger – Outright Win E/W 5 plcs +5500 (0.8U)

– Sahith Theegala – Outright Win E/W 5 plcs +8000 (0.6U)

– Christian Bezuidenhout – Outright Win E/W 8 +6000 (0.6U)

Reasoning:

Morikawa:

Collin appears to be fully back. Before his win at Pebble Beach, he looked completely lost on the golf course, especially around and on the greens. Because of that, I was hesitant to believe he was truly back among the top 10 players in the world when he won seemingly out of nowhere.

Since that victory, though, he has put together some excellent results that have quieted any doubts. Following the win, he finished T7 at The Genesis Invitational and solo fifth last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

More importantly, he has now gained strokes putting and around the greens in three straight starts. Pair that with gaining more than a stroke on approach in each of those events, and he’s back to being one of the biggest threats in any field when he tees it up. It also appears his ball speed has increased slightly, which is interesting since that had typically remained fairly constant for him while much of the rest of the Tour gained distance. That’s definitely something to keep an eye on from a data perspective.

He’s had some solid results at TPC Sawgrass, nothing spectacular, with a T10 and T13 as his best finishes. But he’s riding a wave of great form right now, and Sawgrass rewards fairway accuracy and elite ball striking, two qualities that fit Collin perfectly.

Aberg:

Ludvig looked completely out of sorts to start the year, struggling in nearly every area of his game. However, he’s been steadily improving, and last week was the first time he looked truly dangerous again, finishing T3 at Bay Hill.

He has now gained strokes in all four major categories in his last three starts and is coming off a performance at Bay Hill where he gained more than 1.5 strokes on approach. It feels like his next big win could be coming sooner rather than later.

Ludvig also now calls the Ponte Vedra area home, so he’s very familiar with TPC Sawgrass. He has played the tournament twice in his young career. Last year he missed the cut, but in his first appearance in 2024 he finished solo eighth. I’m a big Ludvig fan, so if he’s showing positive signs, I’m more than happy to jump on board.

Straka:

Sepp’s year has been all over the place to start: MC, T18, T2, T50, T13. He’s one of those golfers where you truly never know what you’re going to get week to week. He’s exactly the type of player that, if you bet him and he plays poorly, you think, “Why did I put money on this guy?” But if you pass on him and he shows up dialed in, you’re left wondering why you didn’t back him.

So which version do we get this week? Who knows, but I’m willing to take the chance.

He has some solid history at TPC Sawgrass. Nothing spectacular, but respectable finishes including T14 last year, T16 in 2024, and T9 in 2022. He’s also coming off a solid week where a rough Sunday dropped him down the leaderboard.

Statistically, the profile is encouraging. He’s gained strokes on approach in every start this year and off the tee in four of five. On paper, his player profile fits quite well with what tends to succeed at TPC Sawgrass.

Min Woo:

Min Woo is really feeling it right now. His game has been trending in a very positive direction, and this has been the most consistent stretch of form he’s had on the PGA Tour over the past couple of seasons. I actually tweeted this out last night from the 403golf X/Twitter account, and it’s the exact reason I think this could be a big week for him. He’s coming in with great form, and he has shown solid success over multiple rounds at TPC Sawgrass in the past. The only thing he hasn’t been able to do yet is string together four strong rounds in the same week.

That said, he appears to be a much stronger and more complete player now. He picked up his first PGA Tour win not long after his weekend blowup at Sawgrass last year, and that experience likely helped him learn how to handle being in contention. I think he’s much more comfortable in those situations now than he was previously.

I should also note that I got him at a better number than what’s currently available in the market, but even at the current odds, I still think he has a great chance this week.

Berger:

We see it all the time in golf. A player comes close to winning or contends one week and then finishes the job the following week. Just look at Ricky Castillo last week at the Puerto Rico Open. He won after coming off a solo fifth at the Cognizant Classic.

Of course, it can go the other way as well. Being in contention for so long and then falling short can be deflating. We saw that with Shane Lowry, who blew a chance at the Cognizant and then followed it up with a missed cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

I’m willing to play the cards and say Berger builds off his strong week at Bay Hill. When healthy, he has produced solid results at TPC Sawgrass. He finished T20 last year, T13 in 2022, and T9 in 2021. That’s three straight top-20 finishes in his last three appearances here, all coming since The Players returned to its March date after previously being played in May prior to 2021.

Theegala:

Sahith is healthy again and playing some great golf. Does his erratic and inconsistent play off the tee scare me, especially at a place like TPC Sawgrass? Absolutely.

But odds of 80/1 with five places, or 100/1 outright, were simply too good for me to pass up on a player who appears to be in strong form. He’s already put together some solid results this season and has a top-10 finish at this tournament before (T9 in 2024).

He has three top-10 finishes in seven starts this year and is coming off a T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he gained strokes in all four main categories. At those odds, it feels well worth the shot.

Bezuidenhout:

I debated whether to include him on the card, mainly because I don’t love the odds for what I’d normally consider a long-shot pick. That said, if he somehow ends up as the 2026 Players Champion on Sunday night, I wouldn’t be able to live with myself for passing on him.

He ranked highly in my model, gaining strokes in all the categories I used, which I explain below. He’s also coming off a T8 at the Puerto Rico Open and has some solid previous results at TPC Sawgrass, including T13 finishes in both 2024 and 2023.

The Model

My model is built using data pulled from DataGolf and the PGA Tour website. For each tournament, I analyze past editions to determine which statistical categories have historically played the most significant role in success at that specific venue.

From there, I compile each player’s Strokes Gained data across the selected categories and assign a numerical weight to each one based on its projected importance. An expected value calculation is then applied to generate the final rankings.

I changed it up for this tournament and am specifically using data only from January 2026 to now so it’s rewarding players in great form to start the year so definitely a strong recency bias.

For this tournament, the key statistical categories I’m using are: