After last week’s birdie-fest shootout, we should return to a much tougher test this week at Colonial Country Club.
Last year, Ben Griffin won by one stroke at 12-under over Matti Schmid, and they were the only two golfers to finish in double digits.
The field once again isn’t great this week, but there are definitely a few more notable names teeing it up, such as Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas, Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, Robert MacIntyre, Hideki Matsuyama, and Akshay Bhatia.
We’ve been in an on-and-off stretch content-wise since the Masters, so we haven’t had a card out every week, but we’re looking for our first outright since Gary Woodland at the Houston Open. We’ll also be back to posting consistently moving forward.
Once again, we’re in Texas this week, so take a look at the weather forecast when you get a chance. Right now, it looks highly likely that we’ll once again be watching with our fingers crossed, hoping thunderstorms and play stoppages are kept to a minimum. We got lucky last week, so hopefully we get more of the same.
The Card
Outright wins:
Justin Thomas +2200 (0.8U)
Max Greyserman +5000 (0.6U)
Matt Mccarty +6600 (0.4U)
Luke Clanton +30000 (0.3U)
Top finishes:
Matt Mccarty Top 5 +1000 (0.2U)
Luke Clanton Top 5 +3500 (0.1U) | Top 10 +1600 (0.1U) | Top 20 +600 (0.2U)
Reasoning
Thomas:
Wanted to include one favorite on the card. Thomas hasn’t played here in a few years, but he does have a past T10 finish here (although the course has been renovated since then) and has been producing some solid results since returning from injury.
He’s coming off a T4 at a tough PGA setup, and before that posted a 13th at the Truist and a T23 at the Cadillac Championship. The putter has been hot and cold this year, so this pick is essentially a gamble that it continues to behave the way it did at the PGA, because every other area of his game has been solid.
This pick comes down to liking his odds a little more than some of the other favorites on the board.
McCarty:
Only one start here, which resulted in a missed cut, but he was playing some really solid golf before the PGA. That run started with a T24 at the Masters and was followed by finishes of T12, T10, T9, and T10.
He’ll need a bounce-back week with the putter, but I like his chances if the form from before the PGA returns.
Max Greyserman:
Can’t believe I’m including him on the card at these odds, but he had a ridiculous week with his approach play last week that resulted in a T9, his first top 10 of the year. The week before, he also recorded his best major finish with a T14 at the PGA.
He’s given himself chances to win a handful of times over the last couple of years, although it hasn’t gone well in those moments. But if we get a spike week with the putter paired with how he’s striking the ball right now, I like his chances this week, especially with there not being a ton of star power in the field.
Clanton:
It’s been a tough run ever since turning pro on the PGA Tour for Clanton. His putting and off-the-tee play have specifically held him back, but last week he showed flashes of the amateur phenom we saw nearly win a couple of times on tour.
For starters, he gained strokes putting for only the second time this year and gained strokes off the tee for the first time in four starts. Was that due to the extremely easy course conditions and relatively flat, straighter putts on the greens? Previous results would suggest probably, but I’m hoping he’s starting to turn the corner.
The game needs more young studs, so it would be awesome to see.
