Being Canadian, this is always a week that I look forward to, one filled with excitement and anticipation.
We’re back at the same course as last year, where we saw Ryan Fox defeat Sam Burns in a playoff, one of the worst playoffs ever. Unfortunately, I won’t be in attendance this year, but I’m still hoping for a great viewing experience from the couch.
The Card:
To Win Outright:
Nicolai Hojgaard: +3200 / 0.6U
Brooks Koepka: +3500 / 0.6U
Michael Brennan: +5000 / 0.5U
Keith Mitchell: +6000 / 0.4U
Matt Wallace: +10000 / 0.3U
Sam Ryder: +25000 / 0.2U
Luke Clanton: +32500 / 0.2U
Top Finishes:
Clanton – Top 20: +600 (0.3U), Top 10: +1600 (0.2U)
Ryder – Top 20: +550 (0.3U), Top 10: +1400 (0.2U)
Wallace: Top 5 +1600 (0.2)
Reasoning:
Hojgaard: Coming off an uncharacteristic week with the driver at the Memorial that led to a missed cut. I would anticipate much better play with that club this week. He’s been in good form this year and has knocked on the door a few times, recording two runner-up finishes and another top-three finish so far. He’s also gained strokes on approach in every start this season. It feels like a breakthrough PGA Tour win is coming sooner rather than later.
Koepka: Switched putters last time out at the CJ Cup and gained strokes putting for the week, leading to a T14 finish. He’s now had a few weeks since the switch to hopefully get more comfortable and confident with both his stroke and the putter itself. He’s strung together some solid results this year with a decent number of T9-T15 finishes but hasn’t quite broken through into that top-five range. I think he’ll be dialed in and prepared, especially with the U.S. Open the following week.
Brennan: As has been mentioned a ton this week already, back when PGA Tour Americas played an event on the course we’ll see this week, Brennan finished T3. Hopefully there are some positive memories and familiarity he can draw from that experience. He’s also coming off a T6 at the Charles Schwab, where he had a fantastic week with the putter, something he’s struggled with for much of the year. I’m hoping the putter stays hot.
Mitchell: He’s shown a few flashes this year, all coming in regular events (non-signature events and majors), which bodes well. He also played solid golf at this course last year, finishing double digits under par and T27. Just a gut feeling that it could be a Cashmere Keith week.
Wallace: Played well a couple of days ago on golf’s longest day, trying to qualify for the U.S. Open after not teeing it up since the PGA Championship. He just missed out, but perhaps he can ride some of that momentum into the Canadian Open.
Clanton/Ryder: Taking a shot on both of them. It’s more of a play on the top-finish bets I already have, but I’d kick myself if either went on to win and I had only bet their placement markets.
Ryder has gained strokes on approach in five straight starts and has gained strokes putting in five of his last six.
As for Clanton, we all know how dominant he was as an amateur and the struggles he’s faced since turning pro, particularly with his putting and off-the-tee play. However, he’s now gained strokes both putting and off the tee in each of his last two starts. Perhaps those are signs of life, so let’s try to get in on him early.
