Below I’ve tiered who I think can win this year’s US Open at Shinnecock Hills. The top being who I feel are the biggest threats and the bottom being who I’m giving the slightest chance to.
Now obviously, the winner will probably be someone not listed because what do I really know.
Below you can see the entire tier list as well as some of my thoughts regarding the list.
Tier 1: The Games Top 3: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm
Scheffler and Rory don’t need an explanation. It’s pretty self-explanatory why they’re in Tier 1. Rahm, on the other hand, after a disappointing stretch in Majors, has re-entered this tier again in my books after his play at the PGA. I think most expect him to be around come US Open Sunday.
Tier 2: Really Really Like him this Week: Matt Fitzpatrick
I couldn’t quite get myself to put Fitzy in the same tier or conversation as the three above him, but I felt he deserved separation from the guys in the tier below him. I think Shinnecock really sets up well for his game, especially with the form he’s shown this season. His approach play has been the 6th best on Tour and his ARG play has been 6th best as well. Those two areas will be crucial this week.
He’s also already crossed the finish line three times this year and is a past US Open Champion.
Tier 3: Strong Contenders: Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, and Chris Gotterup
Some might argue Young belongs in the tier with Fitzpatrick, but I haven’t loved the way Young’s game has been trending over the past month, especially with more inconsistencies showing up in his putting and ARG play. That was enough for me to differentiate Fitzpatrick and Young.
Schauffele has been much better in 2026, but still, for his standards, it’s been pretty average. However, his resume in US Opens is insanely impressive. T14 is his worst finish in nine starts. You have to respect him this week.
Gotterup might not be on the exact same pedigree as Young and Schauffele, or even some guys listed below him, but he’s shown over the last year how much success he’s able to have on links-style, wind-heavy courses. Even though Shinnecock isn’t fully a links course, the conditions should be similar. Gotterup’s game should suit this week perfectly.
Tier 4: Contenders but Injury / Post Injury Concerns: Brooks Koepka, and Collin Morikawa
Before Canada, I was starting to really like Brooks Koepka’s chances this week. Winning the US Open the last time it was at Shinnecock, and even though the results this year might not reflect it, he was playing some really good golf but had just been held back by his poor putting.
However, as we know, he had to withdraw in Canada due to injury over the weekend, and now my confidence in him is almost zero. I still wanted to respect him as a contender this week though.
With Collin Morikawa, by all accounts it seems like his back is healthy, or at least healthier, but it’s more of a mental block right now with committing to his swing. Hopefully he’s feeling good because he’s played impressive golf in 2026. The back issue and extreme wind forecasted make me shy away from him too though.
Without the uncertainties surrounding these two they would have been with the guys in the tier above them.
Tier 5: Contenders but non-existent closing ability: Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Sam Burns
All three of these guys are playing great golf right now, but all have also demonstrated plenty of times that they struggle on Sundays and closing out tournaments. For that reason, I felt the need to differentiate them from the guys above.
Another way of saying it: I could easily see all of them finishing T5, but I find it harder to picture them winning it all come Sunday.
Tier 6: Wouldn’t be shocked: Patrick Reed, Wyndham Clark, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, Cam Smith, Harris English, Adam Scott
These guys have all demonstrated good form at some point this year and also have showcased, on different occasions, the potential to become or are already Major Champions. For many in this tier, it hasn’t happened quite yet, but they’ve had close calls at Majors before.
They’re the guys that aren’t my favourites but by week’s end, if they’re the champion, I would have said it makes sense coming into the week.
Tier 7: Would be Surprised it happens this week: Bryson Dechambeau, Si Woo Kim, Akshay Bhatia, Ben Griffin, Bob MacIntyre, Joaquin Niemann, Justin Thomas, Aaron Rai, Patrick Cantlay, Shane Lowry, Min Woo Lee
All talented players who’ve almost all shown it in Majors previously, but whether it’s the forecasted conditions, course fit, how their game is trending, or just gut feel, I don’t see the likelihood of them winning this week. I would actually be quite shocked.
Tier 8: Potential Random Winners: Kurt Kitayama, Maverick McNealy, Daniel Berger, Ryan Fox, Ryan Gerard, Kristoffer Reitan
We see random winners who’ve never really been in contention at Majors in the past end up winning the US Open. In fact, that statement can be used for two of the last three champions. Both J.J. Spaun (2025) and Wyndham Clark (2023) had never shown much in Majors, and the same is true if we look at the last Major, the PGA Championship, where Aaron Rai was quite a surprise.
These guys are probably names very few are picking, but I could see them navigating the conditions this week and coming out on top.
Really looking forward to this week, and watch, the winner probably won’t be listed here!
